So I've got this theory that the people behind the August 21 Ghouta attack were Hezbollah. I'm not sure why, but I haven't seen a single piece of media suggesting that Hezbollah may have been behind the attacks. I am neither pro-Assad nor anti-Assad; I am simply compiling what I know and looking for the most reasonable explanation of events.
How did Hezbollah come to have chemical weapons? It is common knowledge that Hezbollah has been aiding the Assad regime in the conflict. Israel has bombed a Syrian weapons depot on several occasions [http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/170350#.UjhypMYQZUo], and the reports about the incidents indicate that Israel was targeting weapons shipments to Hezbollah. Thus, I believe that it can be reasonably assumed that there is an exchange of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah. This may very well include chemical weapons. It would be reasonable to assume that a weapons exchange is Syria's way of returning the favor for the help against the rebels. Hezbollah would use these weapons as a part of their arsenal in their next war against Israel, which is a question of when rather than if. [http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-israel-next-war-20130808,0,4857813.story]
Another interesting article recently published is: [http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/172015#.Ujhz1cYQZUo]. The authenticity is entirely unconfirmed.
Analysis of the weapons used in the chemical attack: There were two types of weapons found by the UN inspectors. One was the BM-14 and the other was an improvised rocket that held a much higher capacity for chemicals. Brown Moses has released this graphic of the weapons used: [https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5UYQkylVSpKZ3PRP27u-C4kCQDmE3OravOWsj1gcy8yYcRv5oYmf1EvKR74fkna5oGncrTUm9fowayTqdbHhP6TRk620njAPApuu9h909VCpWN7WtPlFhMFauYh1shpP12K-LRfH5Fn0/s1600/330mm_chemrocket_diagram_2.jpg]. My theory is that the weapons used were constructed as such: a rocket motor was taken from a 122mm surface-to-surface rocket and two pieces were slipped onto it. The first piece was a custom tail-fin. The second was a custom warhead. Combined, these three pieces formed a munition that could be fired from the 333mm Falaq-2 launcher. There were two varieties of the modified 122mm produced (via Brown Moses). The variety in question is the chemical warhead variety. The most likely 122mm rockets to be used for this purpose would be the 122mm grad (BM-21) and the 122mm arash (Iranian). The 122mm grad was the main weapon used by hezbollah during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. [http://www.irantracker.org/military-activities/estimates-hezbollahs-arsenal#_edn3]. There is also evidence that Hezbollah uses 'improved' grad rockets with longer range and higher warhead capacity. This indicates that modifying the grad is in Hezbollah's MO. [http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief006-10.htm] I believe that the best way to describe the rockets is 'makeshift.' There is evidence that these munitions have been used on several occasions in Syria, though on a much smaller scale [http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2013/08/collected-media-of-munitions-linked-to.html]
Brown Moses smoking gun video: Brown Moses cites a video that he calls his smoking gun. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=y6CZtF6pGvQ] In this video, people are seen loading the High Explosive variety of the weaponry being loaded into an Iranian falagh-2 launcher. Some of the people are in civilian clothes, while some are red berets; the details are difficult to make out, but the identity of the weaponry is unmistakable. Brown Moses says that this video directly points to Assad's regime being responsible for the attacks, while conveniently overlooking that the three forces in the region that wear red berets are the Iran National Guard, Assad's presidential guard, and Hezbollah. I believe that this video (weakly) indicates that it was one of those three forces behind the attack. The Falagh-2 launcher has been on sale since 2010 [I don't remember the source right now] and to my knowledge, there is no record of any other countries buying the system. We know that Hezbollah has Falaq-type rockets as part of their arsenal [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falaq-2, other sources]. The falaq-2 has been spotted in Syria, but there I have not been able to find any evidence that the launchers in question belonged to Syria and not Hezbollah.
Weather: According to my research, the weather at around the time of launch (2-3AM) was approximately 10-12mph SW. That information was taken from this website: [http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/OSDI/2013/8/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA]. That information has since been modified to that which shows when you click the link today. Independent report link #1 (link below) corroborates that the wind was indeed blowing SW.
Speculation: In my mind, there are only three forces that could have perpetrated the attacks. They are the Syrian presidential guard, the Iran National guard, and Hezbollah. If the Syrian government had perpetrated the attacks, they would have done so in a period of time when the UN inspectors had arrived in Syria to determine whether chemical weapons were being used. This would be an extremely stupid thing for the government to do as it would have a lot to lose by foreign intervention - it would give the US an excuse to turn the tide. The shelling of the area by government forces in the days following the attack could be attributed to the government's realization that regardless of which party was using the weapons, it would make the government look responsible. The Iranians have a long history of being gassed by Iraq (with the USA's help) and as such, the entire nation is bitter about chemical weapons and strongly condemns their use. While this is by no means any ironclad evidence against Iran's responsibility in this, the rest of the information I've compiled seems to point much more strongly to Hezbollah than to Iran. The presence of the civilians handling the rocket in the test launch video (smoking gun video) seems to indicate against any armed forces being behind the launch. The fact that these weapons were used previously in smaller doses in Syria indicates that this was not a one-time thing. My theory is that Hezbollah, having received these weapons, were using Syria as a testing ground. Hezbollah has nothing to lose in this, as opposed to the Syrian government or Iran.
My theory is that Hezbollah was using Syria to test the delivery methods of their newly-acquired chemical weapons to be used against Israel in the upcoming war. To me, this is the only theory that makes sense, whether or not Israel and Hezbollah intend to have any sort of war in the near future.
Intelligence reports: I looked at all of the intelligence as such: each of the governments and parties involved can be trusted to lie and distort the truth. The key is to see past the bullshit and take no politician at their word. My analysis of these is not included here, but is available upon request.
How did Hezbollah come to have chemical weapons? It is common knowledge that Hezbollah has been aiding the Assad regime in the conflict. Israel has bombed a Syrian weapons depot on several occasions [http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/170350#.UjhypMYQZUo], and the reports about the incidents indicate that Israel was targeting weapons shipments to Hezbollah. Thus, I believe that it can be reasonably assumed that there is an exchange of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah. This may very well include chemical weapons. It would be reasonable to assume that a weapons exchange is Syria's way of returning the favor for the help against the rebels. Hezbollah would use these weapons as a part of their arsenal in their next war against Israel, which is a question of when rather than if. [http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-israel-next-war-20130808,0,4857813.story]
Another interesting article recently published is: [http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/172015#.Ujhz1cYQZUo]. The authenticity is entirely unconfirmed.
Analysis of the weapons used in the chemical attack: There were two types of weapons found by the UN inspectors. One was the BM-14 and the other was an improvised rocket that held a much higher capacity for chemicals. Brown Moses has released this graphic of the weapons used: [https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5UYQkylVSpKZ3PRP27u-C4kCQDmE3OravOWsj1gcy8yYcRv5oYmf1EvKR74fkna5oGncrTUm9fowayTqdbHhP6TRk620njAPApuu9h909VCpWN7WtPlFhMFauYh1shpP12K-LRfH5Fn0/s1600/330mm_chemrocket_diagram_2.jpg]. My theory is that the weapons used were constructed as such: a rocket motor was taken from a 122mm surface-to-surface rocket and two pieces were slipped onto it. The first piece was a custom tail-fin. The second was a custom warhead. Combined, these three pieces formed a munition that could be fired from the 333mm Falaq-2 launcher. There were two varieties of the modified 122mm produced (via Brown Moses). The variety in question is the chemical warhead variety. The most likely 122mm rockets to be used for this purpose would be the 122mm grad (BM-21) and the 122mm arash (Iranian). The 122mm grad was the main weapon used by hezbollah during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. [http://www.irantracker.org/military-activities/estimates-hezbollahs-arsenal#_edn3]. There is also evidence that Hezbollah uses 'improved' grad rockets with longer range and higher warhead capacity. This indicates that modifying the grad is in Hezbollah's MO. [http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief006-10.htm] I believe that the best way to describe the rockets is 'makeshift.' There is evidence that these munitions have been used on several occasions in Syria, though on a much smaller scale [http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2013/08/collected-media-of-munitions-linked-to.html]
Brown Moses smoking gun video: Brown Moses cites a video that he calls his smoking gun. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=y6CZtF6pGvQ] In this video, people are seen loading the High Explosive variety of the weaponry being loaded into an Iranian falagh-2 launcher. Some of the people are in civilian clothes, while some are red berets; the details are difficult to make out, but the identity of the weaponry is unmistakable. Brown Moses says that this video directly points to Assad's regime being responsible for the attacks, while conveniently overlooking that the three forces in the region that wear red berets are the Iran National Guard, Assad's presidential guard, and Hezbollah. I believe that this video (weakly) indicates that it was one of those three forces behind the attack. The Falagh-2 launcher has been on sale since 2010 [I don't remember the source right now] and to my knowledge, there is no record of any other countries buying the system. We know that Hezbollah has Falaq-type rockets as part of their arsenal [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falaq-2, other sources]. The falaq-2 has been spotted in Syria, but there I have not been able to find any evidence that the launchers in question belonged to Syria and not Hezbollah.
Weather: According to my research, the weather at around the time of launch (2-3AM) was approximately 10-12mph SW. That information was taken from this website: [http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/OSDI/2013/8/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA]. That information has since been modified to that which shows when you click the link today. Independent report link #1 (link below) corroborates that the wind was indeed blowing SW.
Speculation: In my mind, there are only three forces that could have perpetrated the attacks. They are the Syrian presidential guard, the Iran National guard, and Hezbollah. If the Syrian government had perpetrated the attacks, they would have done so in a period of time when the UN inspectors had arrived in Syria to determine whether chemical weapons were being used. This would be an extremely stupid thing for the government to do as it would have a lot to lose by foreign intervention - it would give the US an excuse to turn the tide. The shelling of the area by government forces in the days following the attack could be attributed to the government's realization that regardless of which party was using the weapons, it would make the government look responsible. The Iranians have a long history of being gassed by Iraq (with the USA's help) and as such, the entire nation is bitter about chemical weapons and strongly condemns their use. While this is by no means any ironclad evidence against Iran's responsibility in this, the rest of the information I've compiled seems to point much more strongly to Hezbollah than to Iran. The presence of the civilians handling the rocket in the test launch video (smoking gun video) seems to indicate against any armed forces being behind the launch. The fact that these weapons were used previously in smaller doses in Syria indicates that this was not a one-time thing. My theory is that Hezbollah, having received these weapons, were using Syria as a testing ground. Hezbollah has nothing to lose in this, as opposed to the Syrian government or Iran.
My theory is that Hezbollah was using Syria to test the delivery methods of their newly-acquired chemical weapons to be used against Israel in the upcoming war. To me, this is the only theory that makes sense, whether or not Israel and Hezbollah intend to have any sort of war in the near future.
Intelligence reports: I looked at all of the intelligence as such: each of the governments and parties involved can be trusted to lie and distort the truth. The key is to see past the bullshit and take no politician at their word. My analysis of these is not included here, but is available upon request.
Intelligence reports: I looked at all of the intelligence as such: each of the governments and parties involved can be trusted to lie and distort the truth. The key is to see past the bullshit and take no politician at their word.
- American intelligence reports: The initial American government assessment (linked below) states absolutely nothing of relevance and releases a useless map which seems to imply that the attacks came from Syrian government-controlled forces in the West. Geolocation of the satellites via storyful [http://storyful.com/stories/
63271] compared to google maps satellite data indicates that the rockets came from the North. I believe several other sources later verified this. Another piece of American intel meant to push us towards war was that the Syrian government was moving chemical weapons around. This can be attributed to the Syrian government moving their chemical weapons stockpiles away from danger areas to more government-controlled areas in order to prevent the possibility of rebel forces gaining control of them. Another piece of intel cited by the US as a justification for the war was that shortly after the attack, US intelligence intercepted a panicked phone call from the Syrian government to Syrian chemical weapons facilities. This might indicate that Assad was not aware of the attack before it happened. I was not able to find the actual content of the call Mr. Kerry stated an extremely precise death toll far above any other reported, and about 100 greater than that released by the rebels. I think that it is vitally important for each and every American to understand that the American government did not actually show a single piece of this evidence to the public, and would not reveal the source of the death count. - Russian intelligence reports: The Russians submitted a 100-page report to the UN about chemical weapons use by the rebels in May. This report has not been released and the authenticity cannot be confirmed. Thus far, it has only been used to poke fun at the Americans' 12-page classified document presented to congress. The Russian government has not produced any of this evidence, and video of a Russian seizure of rebel chemical weapons turned out to be a Russian seizure of rebel antifreeze.
- German intelligence reports: One of the pieces of German intelligence was that the weapons used to deliver the weapons were 107mm caliber, which the Syrian army has a great deal of. Photographs of the weapons inspected by the UN show that this was not the case, and seems to be another example of faulty intel. Another piece of German intel was about an intercepted call from a Hezbollah general to his sponsor in Iran. Reportedly, the call went something like 'Assad lost his nerve, using the chemical weapons was a big mistake.' Shuffled around, this could be interpreted as 'using the chemical weapons was a big mistake, Assad lost his nerve' or 'using the chemical weapons was a big mistake, Assad was really pissed off.' There were also rumors of a dosage mistake, which might be related to the evidence of similar attacks being used on a much smaller scale previously. I do not, at this time, have the energy to follow through on these reports.
Independent Reports:
Independent report #1 (MIT): http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/world/syria/iraq_syria.pdf
Independent report #2 (Tesla): http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/world/syria/Lloyd_warhead.pdf
RUSI analysis of Brown Moses data: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PmwjXp45syI#t=45
US government assessment of the attack: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21
Syrian National Coalition report about the August 21 attacks: http://gallery.mailchimp.com/91f7a2c8b39d32e7ac9968d75/files/Preliminary_Report_on_the_August_21_2013_Chemical_Weapons_Attacks_in_Ghouta.pdf
I'll pull up whatever sources I can find if anyone asks for more sources. It makes sense to me, so if anyone find problems with my theory, I'd love to discuss!
No comments:
Post a Comment